Race prediction rationale

This calculator estimates equivalent performances from one race result. It uses an endurance projection model, then adjusts the prediction slightly based on runner profile. The result is useful for planning, comparing events, and understanding whether an athlete is more speed-based or endurance-based.

Why predictions are estimates

Race prediction is not perfect. A 5K result may not accurately predict an 800m if the runner lacks speed. An 800m result may not accurately predict a marathon if the runner lacks endurance. Use the calculator as a guide, not a guarantee.

How runner profile changes the result

• Balanced Runner: Uses a standard projection curve.
• Speed-Based Runner: Slightly stronger predictions for shorter events and more conservative predictions for longer events.
• Endurance-Based Runner: Slightly stronger predictions for longer events and more conservative predictions for shorter events.
• Developing / Inconsistent: Wider uncertainty because training history and race execution may vary.

How to use the result

• Use nearby events for the most reliable prediction. A 1500m predicts 800m and 3K better than marathon.
• Use long races to estimate endurance strength.
• Use short races to estimate speed reserve.
• Compare predictions against actual PBs to identify strengths and weaknesses.